Karnes County’s agriculture is in a critical state and the situation is closing in on becoming a disaster, according to local experts.

Every farmer and rancher knows it — the area is just too dry after too many sweltering hot days without a drop of rain.

As a whole, all crops harvested this year and in the late months of last year have been complete failures. Cotton is due to be harvested soon, and it’s expected to, at best, yield half what it normally does.

It’s been the most successful crop the county has put in the ground in a year, though "success" isn’t a word most ranchers are using to describe it. The full white blooms can be seen from the side of many roads in the county, and the promising look doesn’t let on at a glance how bad things are.

"Cotton will fool you. When cotton starts to mature, that white really shows up out there against that green. I hate to speak badly about people’s crops individually, but that’s still a very poor cotton crop right there compared to what they normally (produce)," Karnes County Extension Agent Dennis Hale said of a cotton crop south of Falls City on US Highway 181 maintained by Janysek Brothers, a local farming business.

Cotton has been favored by local ranchers for several years due to its drought tolerance. Despite dry conditions, it can pull through and produce, but it still requires at least some rain to get it through.

Local weather patterns haven’t given it enough, and yields in Karnes County are expected by experts to be 50 to 75 percent lower than normal, according to Hale.

Still, other crops have fared far worse.

"Field crops for Karnes County were basically non-existent in 2006. We basically harvested zero wheat and oats," he said. "Our corn? Non-existent. Sorghum? A little grain sorghum was harvested, but the yields were anywhere from 75 to 85 percent below normal. Sunflowers … they’ve just deteriorated to nothing, and then cotton was the one that was kind of hoping to be our savior."

In reality, 2006 field crops in Karnes County have nearly been non-existent. Most local farmers have crop insurance to get them through, but not having a crop still hurts their income drastically.

Farm programs and insurance benefits can only go so far, and though most local farmers tell Hale they’re planning to stay in the business, that might not be the case next year.

"I haven’t heard of anybody saying they’re quitting, but it took a toll on those producers. It would be like getting your paycheck cut off. If they had budgeted that they were going to make $50,000 this year … they may be down to $20,000," he said. "This has significantly hurt their income. Crop insurance benefits and farm program benefits can’t make up for a lost crop. They keep you in business, but (farmers) took a substantial hit."

Karnes County ranchers have been hit with immediate losses. Hay prices have skyrocketed since the drought has dwindled supply, and the county’s estimated 45,000 head of cows has been sold down to about 18,000.

The one consolation for ranchers has been a steadily healthy cattle market. Ranchers who sold out typically got a good bit of income off their sale, but at the same time their long-term production has been cut back drastically.

The solution is simple: rain, and lots of it. If the county doesn’t pull through with some good, steady fall and winter rains, things could get nasty in a very big hurry.

"I’ve never been through this, but if we have a fall and winter like this last year, I do not know what would happen to us. It actually would be an area that I have not encountered in my 26 years of extension," Hale said. "I mean, I’ve been in dry times, but if we don’t get substantial fall and winter rains, I do not know how bad it’s going to get."

Meteorologists at the National Weather Service are optimistic about South Texas’ precipitation outlook, though.

"The long-range prediction folks are saying they believe we’re going to go into a weak El Nino," National Weather Service Meteorologist Larry Eblen said. "It won’t be a strong one, but an El Nino generally means for South Texas that you go into a period of increased rainfall."

Long-range projections for October, November, and December show above-average precipitation.

"They put a new (projection) out every month. The last one showed near normal, and it’s now saying above normal," Eblen said. "In fact, they continue that above trend all the way into February, and after February, they go back to a near normal rainfall. Nowhere do they show a trend toward deficit."

National Weather Service meteorologists predicted average annual precipitation for Karnes County at the beginning of the year, which would have totaled 16.53 inches thus far.

If the coming months have average precipitation, Karnes County will get about 10 inches between now and the end of the year. If the National Weather Service predictions hold true, the county will get even more than that.

Whatever rain does come will be needed desperately regardless.

"What we’ve got to have is a cooling off. We need to get down into the low 90s. In September, we need to get those timely rains," Hale said. "We don’t need 20 inches of rain in one day. We need those one- and two-inch rains that consistently keep coming. That’s what we’ve got to have, and if we don’t, I cringe to think what 2007 will bring."

Meanwhile, farmers and ranchers will be looking to the heavens, and repeating the phrase they live by: "Pray for rain."