With all the rain falling lately, it may surprise some Texans to hear we’re not yet out of a drought. At least that’s the situation according to one of Karnes County’s leading agriculture experts.

That may not make a difference to most people when they’re navigating road closures trying to get to work or getting soaked to the bone trying to fill the car trunk with groceries. To the cattle producer, though, it should mean quite a bit, says Karnes County Agriculture Extension Agent Dennis Hale.

"We are really not out of the drought," he said.

Hale recognizes the viewpoint isn’t entirely popular with all the rain falling from the sky and South Texas’ drought weariness after several previous dry years. However, he thinks it’s important to remember for people who make their living based on how the weather goes.

"We’ve been in a drought before for a long period of time and we’ve gone through these wet spells before. It flooded and we were deluged with water, then we went through about three years of drought following it," Hale said. "Four or five years of drought aren’t made up for with a couple months of rainy weather."

His advice to cattle producers: Don’t bite off more beef than you can chew.

"Beef producers, be cautious. Don’t go out on a limb. Things can turn around very quickly and that can get very expensive," he said.

Hale was quick to follow his advice up with a positive, healthy report on the situation of agriculture in the county.

Overall, crops are looking very good and farmers are having a decent year so far.

"I’m not saying they’re the best they’ve ever looked, but they certainly look good. We’ve had a few problems here and there, but nothing major. Prices are up … and it looks like we should have, on the average, above-average yields. That bodes well for the farmer," Hale said.

The incoming rain, however, could pose a threat to river bottom crops if the San Antonio River keeps climbing.

"The rain is certainly good, but we don’t need what Marble Falls got. If this doesn’t change, we’re going to have to watch the San Antonio River. Some of our best crops are down near the river bottom," Hale explained.

Hay production has been up so far this year, but recent conditions have been mixed.

A lot of hay in the county was ruined on the ground due to the wet weather, but a lot also has been bundled successfully and the tropical conditions will ensure heavy growth in the future.

Hay prices also remain high as county ranchers work to re-stock the same barns that were severely depleted after recent years of dry weather.

Meanwhile, grain prices remain high, which is pushing up demand for hay. Hale said as long as grain prices stay high, hay prices could keep up in unison.

As for what the future holds, a lot of it’s in the weather forecast. However, current conditions are giving agriculture economists a glimpse at what may be to come.

"Our economists have told us they really feel like the coming cattle market (will be) similar to what it was like in the ‘70s," Hale said. "In the 1970s, we’d have some really super-high cattle prices and then we’d go along there for a while and really bottom out bad, and then we’d jump back up. There were some real highs and real lows, so producers are going to have to be aware of that. They’re going to have to watch for marketing their cattle and obviously try to hit some of the highs."